Eyes on International
- Tourism Economics
- Aug 27
- 1 min read
The hoped-for post-pandemic rebound in international travel has flipped into reverse. After a solid January, overseas visitor growth turned negative and has stayed in decline through the first half of 2025.
Through July, overseas arrivals to the U.S. are running 1.6% below last year. An 8.2% decline is expected for overall international inbound—a far cry from the 9% growth that was forecast for 2025 before geopolitical tensions escalated.
In dollars: The drop results in an $8.3 billion loss of visitor spending.
Overseas visits are now expected to remain 16% below 2019 levels this year, prolonging the full recovery of international travel to the U.S. all the way to 2029.
Have declines run their course? Likely not. Air bookings for international inbound travel continue to trail, currently running 10% to 14% below this time last year for travel from August through October.
Visitation from Canada deteriorated further in July, bringing the drop to -25.2% year-to-date and putting particular pressure on states along the Canadian border.
The bottom line: The industry is split. One portion remains stable with Americans traveling domestically, but the other is starkly defined by international visitors who are missing in action. The imbalance is manageable in the short run, but the return of international inbound is crucial for the tourism sector’s long-term health.
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